Le groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur le climat (GIEC) a remis les conclusions de son dernier rapport (téléchargeable ici). Elles sont alarmantes.
Le Partit Occitan interpelle les élus, les décideurs publics ou privés, les lanceurs d’alerte et les citoyens à diffuser les conclusions de ce rapport pour agir dès aujourd’hui.
Extraits :
Le réchauffement du système climatique est sans équivoque et, depuis les années 1950, beaucoup de changements observés sont sans précédent depuis des décennies voire des millénaires. L’atmosphère et l’océan se sont réchauffés, la couverture de neige et de glace a diminué, le niveau des mers s’est élevé et les concentrations des gaz à effet de serre ont augmenté.
Chacune des trois dernières décennies a été successivement plus chaude à la surface de la Terre que toutes les décennies précédentes depuis 1850. Les années 1983 à 2012 constituent probablement la période de 30 ans la plus chaude qu’ait connue l’hémisphère Nord depuis 1 400 ans (degré de confiance moyen).
Le réchauffement océanique constitue l’essentiel de la hausse de la quantité d’énergie emmagasinée au sein du système climatique et représente plus de 90 % de l’énergie accumulée entre 1971 et 2010 (degré de confiance élevé). Il est quasiment certain que l’océan superficiel (jusqu’à 700 m de profondeur) s’est réchauffé entre 1971 et 2010, et ce dernier s’est probablement réchauffé entre les années 1870 et 1971.
Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la masse des nappes glaciaires du Groenland et de l’Antarctique a diminué, les glaciers de presque toutes les régions du globe ont continué à se réduire et l’étendue de la banquise arctique et celle du manteau neigeux de l’hémisphère Nord au printemps ont continué à diminuer (degré de confiance élevé).
Depuis le milieu du XIXe siècle, le rythme d’élévation du niveau moyen des mers est supérieur au rythme moyen des deux derniers millénaires (degré de confiance élevé). Entre 1901 et 2010, le niveau moyen des mers à l’échelle du globe s’est élevé de 0,19 m [de 0,17 à 0,21 m].
Les concentrations atmosphériques de dioxyde de carbone, de méthane et de protoxyde d’azote ont augmenté pour atteindre des niveaux sans précédent depuis au moins 800 000 ans. La concentration du dioxyde de carbone a augmenté de 40 % depuis l’époque préindustrielle. Cette augmentation s’explique en premier lieu par l’utilisation de combustibles fossiles et en second lieu par le bilan des émissions dues aux changements d’utilisation des sols. L’océan a absorbé environ 30 % des émissions anthropiques de dioxyde de carbone, ce qui a entraîné une acidification de ses eaux.
Le forçage radiatif total est positif et a conduit à une absorption nette d’énergie par le système climatique. La plus grande contribution à ce forçage radiatif provient de l’augmentation de la teneur de l’atmosphère en CO2 depuis 1750.
L’influence de l’homme sur le système climatique est clairement établie, et ce, sur la base des données concernant l’augmentation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère, le forçage radiatif positif, le réchauffement observé et la compréhension du système climatique.
Depuis la publication du quatrième Rapport d’évaluation, les modèles climatiques ont progressé. Les modèles reproduisent les structures spatiales et tendances de température en surface observées à l’échelle des continents sur de nombreuses décennies, y compris le réchauffement relativement rapide observé depuis le milieu du XXe siècle et le refroidissement suivant immédiatement les éruptions volcaniques majeures (degré de confiance très élevé).
Effectuées à partir d’observations et de modèles, les études des changements de température, des rétroactions climatiques et des changements que subit le bilan énergétique de la Terre apportent des éléments fiables concernant l’amplitude du réchauffement de la planète en réponse au forçage passé et futur.
On détecte l’influence des activités humaines dans le réchauffement de l’atmosphère et de l’océan, dans les changements du cycle global de l’eau, dans le recul des neiges et des glaces, dans l’élévation du niveau moyen mondial des mers et dans la modification de certains extrêmes climatiques. On a gagné en certitude à ce sujet depuis le quatrième Rapport d’évaluation. Il est extrêmement probable que l’influence de l’homme est la cause principale du réchauffement observé depuis le milieu du XXe siècle.
À la fin du XXIe siècle, l’augmentation de la température à la surface du globe sera probablement supérieure à 1,5 °C par rapport à l’époque allant de 1850 à 1900, pour tous les RCP sauf le RCP2,6. Il est probable qu’elle dépassera 2 °C selon les RCP6,0 et RCP8,5, et il est plus probable qu’improbable qu’elle dépassera 2 °C selon le RCP4,5. Dans tous les RCP envisagés à l’exception du RCP2,6, le réchauffement se poursuivra après 2100. Il continuera à présenter une variabilité interannuelle à décennale et ne sera pas uniforme d’une région à l’autre.
À l’échelle mondiale, l’océan continuera à se réchauffer au cours du XXIe siècle. De la chaleur sera absorbée à la surface et pénètrera jusqu’à l’océan profond, perturbant la circulation océanique. Le niveau moyen mondial des mers continuera à s’élever au cours du XXIe siècle. Selon tous les RCP, il est très probable que cette élévation se produira à un rythme plus rapide que celui observé entre 1971 et 2010, en raison du réchauffement accru de l’océan et de l’augmentation de perte de masse des glaciers et des nappes glaciaires.
Le changement climatique affectera les processus liés au cycle du carbone d’une manière qui amplifiera l’accroissement du CO2 atmosphérique (degré de confiance élevé). Le phénomène d’acidification de l’océan augmentera, puisque celui-ci continuera de piéger du carbone.
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